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Ethan Todras-Whitehill
How Your 401k or IRA is Like the SAT
2 Comments | posted March 23rd, 2009 at 01:20 pm by Ethan Todras-Whitehill

As one of my myriad professions, I work as an SAT tutor. As such, I’m tuned in to the specific tricks that the testmaker, Education Testing Services (ETS) is trying to catch you in. Right now, it feels like ETS is running the stock market. Try this question:

A sweater in a department store is marked up in price by 20% on Monday. The sweater doesn’t sell, and on Friday it is marked down 50%. Relative to the original price, what is the total discount offered on the sweater on Friday?

A) 20%
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) 60%

Answer after the jump.

How many of you said (B)? The answer is (C), but if you picked (B) or even if you wanted to pick (B), you’re probably suffering from the same confusion relative to your 401k or IRA account balance as the rest of us.

In this economy, if you guys are anything like me, you’re checking your portfolio only when the market is heading up. Maybe you keep a portfolio on sites like Marketwatch or your online brokerage. Maybe you checked once in a while when the market started to tank. Also if you’re anything like me, you probably are staring at numbers like “-50%” under “Performance.” Here’s the thing, though: if the market somehow goes back up 50% from where it is now, you’re still going to be 25% in the hole.

This is not brain surgery, I realize, but it’s also an incredibly common mathematical mistake. Percentages are relative to the starting number, which means if you lose 50% of $10,000 (to $5,000), and then regain 50% from $5,000, you’re only getting $2,500 up. Just like how the sweater was marked up 20% to 120% of the original price, then marked down 50% from that price to a total of 60% of the original price. Many people forget to reset the original value and say that 100+20-50=70, or down 30%. That’s the scary thing with this market. For people to regain their 50% losses, the market needs to go up 100% from its low point. 50% might seems reasonable, but 100%? That sounds impossible. Or at least like it’s going to take a really, really long time.

This entry was posted on Monday, March 23rd, 2009 at 1:20 pm and is filed under Career/Life, In The News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

There are currently 2 responses

  1. Molly

    Ethan, Even looking at that SAT question brought back bad memories of high school math problems! Thank you for simplifying it for those of us who aren’t math wizards. I’ve seen a couple for-the-layperson incarnations of explaining how our economy took a nose dive. Here’s one them I found useful and actually humorous at points. Of course, it might be an “of course” for some of you, but the visual really helped visual-learner me:

    http://crisisofcredit.com

    I also think you probably just scared the pants off of a lot of people. So for those of us who actually had no money to lose, should we feel better off or worse?

    March 25th, 2009 | 11:01 am
  2. Um, better. Invest now and your initial value will be equal to a lot of people’s initial value a year ago. If I had 10k invested a year ago, and now it’s 5k, and you invest 5k now, it’s like you invested 10k a year ago. The logic is that I’ll be growing my money back to its original value, while you’ll be on the way to doubling yours.

    March 27th, 2009 | 2:05 pm